Horse Racing
Betting tips from over 20 years of experience.
February 14, 2009
Horse Betting Road to Kentucky Derby 2-14-09 recap
Recap of today’s plays. Horse Betting, more than any other form of wagering, is a “marathon”. There will be long dry spells. You need a large bankroll and a strong stomach as there will be extreme highs and lows. Remember, I am playing these races from home and not from the track so I must rely only on the data and not any physicality. I will be basing my selections on where I think the pace of the race will be. That means if I blow the pace I believe the race will be run at, I will blow the entire race. That is horse betting!
Saturday 2-14-09 we have two prep races.
4:48 pm Post Time Rae 10
- $225000 Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, 1 1/16 miles
PN Horse Fair Odds Bet Odds Place Pool % Show Pool %
5 Atomic Rain 7/2 6/1 12.9% 11.5%
7 Free Country 7/2 6/1 12.9% 11.4%
4 Mitchell Park 7/2 6/1 12.8% 11.4%
6 Cliffys Future 7/1 10/1 na na
Win $50 4 Mitchell Park needed 6/1 and got 70/1
Win $50 6 Cliffys Future needed 10/1 and get 13/1
Place Pass no value on top 2 favorites
Show Pass no value on top 2 favorites
Exacta $150 $25 Exacta Key Box 7 with 4,5,6
Tri $180 $10 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 4,5,6
Super $48 $2 Superfecta Key Box 7 with 4,5,6
Result 2-10-9
I blew the pace by a mile! When this happens, all of my selections are wrong, and that is exactly what happened.
Bank after Race 1
Win -$100
Place $0.00
Show $0.00
Exacta -$150
Trifecta -$180
Superfecta -$48
4:22pm Post Time Race 8
- $200000 El Camino Real (G3) at Golden Gate Fields, 1 1/8 miles
PN Horse Fair Odds Bet Odds Place Pool % Show Pool %
7 Chocolate C Even 9/5 29.2% 26.0%
4 Massone 9/2 7/1 na na
3 Axel Foley 6/1 9/1 na na
Win $50 4 Massone needed 7/1 and got 8/1
Place pass
Show pass
Exacta $100 $25 Exacta Key Box 7 with 3,4
Tri $60 $10 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 3,4
Super pass
Result 7-4-6 $1 exacta paid $6.50
Win -$50
Exacta +$62.50
Trifecta -$60
Year to date Bank
Win -$150
Place $0.00
Show $0.00
Exacta -$87.50
Trifecta -$-240.
Superfecta -$48
Here is how I will play all the prep races
Win Bets
I will place a win bet on all horses having odds at 1 minute to post equal to or higher than the bet odds shown above. I will place $50 flat win bets on each overlay.
Place & Show Bets
I will check the pool totals and place a $100 place and or a $100 show bet if there is an equal or less percentage of money bet on the horse’s pool percentage above. The filter I will use is that the horse I will bet must also be the favorite or second favorite. NO LONGSHOTS for place and show bets.
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
I will take the Lowest Odds horse (favorite hopefully) of the 4 contenders above and use him as the key horse in all positions as laid out below.
X= key horse
A,B,C = other three contenders
The exacta will be two tickets placed like this with a cost of $6.00/$1.00
X with ABC
ABC with X
I will place $25 exactas so my cost is $150.00
The Trifecta will be three tickets placed like this with a cost of $18.00/$1.00
X with ABC with ABC
ABC with X with ABC
ABC with ABC with X
I will place $10 Trifecta tickets so my cost is $180.00
The Superfecta will be four tickets placed like this with a cost of $24.00/$1.00
X with ABC with ABC with ABC
ABC with X with ABC with ABC
ABC with ABC with X with ABC
ABC with ABC with ABC with X
I will place $2.00 Superfecta tickets so my cost is $48.00
I will always make sure the favorite is included in my exotic tickets but if the favorite is not one of my listed contenders, the favorite is not the key horse. The lowest odds horse becomes the key horse and I use the favorite as an additional contender.
February 2009 Kentucky Derby Prep Races Schedule
- 2/7/2009
- $200000 Robert B Lewis (G2) at Santa Anita, 1 1/16 miles
- $200000 Risen Star (G3) at Fair Grounds, 1 1/16 miles
- $100000 Whirlaway at Aqueduct, 1 1/16 miles
- $100000 Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise, 1 1/16 miles
- 2/14/2009
- $225000 Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, 1 1/16 miles
- $200000 El Camino Real (G3) at Golden Gate Fields, 1 1/8 miles
- 2/16/2009
- $150000 San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita, 7 furlongs
- $250000 Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn, 1 mile
- 2/28/2009
- $250000 Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream, 1 mile
- $200000 Sham (G3) at Santa Anita, 1 1/8 miles
- $100000 John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park, 1 1/16 miles
- $100000 Borderland Derby at Sunland Park, 1 1/16 miles
March 2009 Kentucky Derby Prep Races Schedule
- 3/7/2009
- $250000 Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct, 1 1/16 miles
- 3/14/2009
- $600000 Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, 1 1/16 miles
- $200000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita, 1 1/16 miles
- $300000 Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn, 1 1/16 miles
- $300000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, 1 1/16 miles
- 3/18/2009
- $150000 Kempton Challenge at "Kempton, GB", 1 1/8 miles
- 3/21/2009
- $500000 Lane's End (G2) at Turfway Park, 1 1/8 miles
- $100000 Rushaway at Turfway Park, 1 1/16 miles
- 3/28/2009
- $750000 Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream, 1 1/8 miles
- $200000 Swale (G2) at Gulfstream, 7 furlongs
- $2000000 UAE Derby (G2) at Nad Al Sheba, 1 1/8 miles
- $70000 San Miguel at Santa Anita, 6 furlongs
- 3/29/2009
- $800000 Sunland Derby at Sunland Park, 1 1/8 miles
April 2009 Kentucky Derby Prep Races Schedule
- 4/4/2009
- $750000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita, 1 1/8 miles
- $750000 Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct, 1 1/8 miles
- $500000 (G1)llinois Derby (G2) at Hawthorne, 1 1/8 miles
- $200000 Bay Shore (G3) at Aqueduct, 7 furlongs
- 4/11/2009
- $750000 Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, 1 1/8 miles
- $1000000 Arkansas Derby (G2) at Oaklawn, 1 1/8 miles
- 4/18/2009
- $325000 Lexington (G2) at Keeneland, 1 1/16 miles
- $150000 Federico Tesio at Pimlico, 1 1/8 miles
- 4/25/2009
- $100000 Derby Trial (G3) at Churchill Downs, 1 mile
- $150000 Withers (G3) at Aqueduct, 1 mile
2009 Triple Crown Trail
- 5/2/2009
- $2-million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, 1 1/4 miles
- 5/16/2009
- $1-million Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico, 1 3/16 miles
- 6/6/2009
- $1-million Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, 1 1/2 miles
