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March 2009

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2009 Kentucky Derby Prep Races Schedule

 

Horse Racing

Betting tips from over 20 years of experience.

 

February 14, 2009

Horse Betting Road to Kentucky Derby 2-14-09 recap

Recap of today’s plays.  Horse Betting, more than any other form of wagering, is a “marathon”.  There will be long dry spells.  You need a large bankroll and a strong stomach as there will be extreme highs and lows.  Remember, I am playing these races from home and not from the track so I must rely only on the data and not any physicality.  I will be basing my selections on where I think the pace of the race will be.  That means if I blow the pace I believe the race will be run at,  I will blow the entire race.  That is horse betting!

Saturday 2-14-09 we have two prep races.

4:48 pm Post Time Rae 10

PN       Horse               Fair Odds         Bet Odds         Place Pool %    Show Pool %
5          Atomic Rain     7/2                   6/1                   12.9%              11.5%
7          Free Country    7/2                   6/1                   12.9%              11.4%
4          Mitchell Park    7/2                   6/1                   12.8%              11.4%
6          Cliffys Future    7/1                   10/1                 na                     na

 

Win      $50      4 Mitchell Park             needed 6/1 and got 70/1
Win      $50      6 Cliffys Future needed 10/1 and get 13/1
Place    Pass no value on top 2 favorites
Show   Pass no value on top 2 favorites
Exacta  $150    $25 Exacta Key Box 7 with 4,5,6
Tri        $180    $10 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 4,5,6
Super   $48      $2 Superfecta Key Box 7 with 4,5,6

Result 2-10-9

I blew the pace by a mile!  When this happens, all of my selections are wrong, and that is exactly what happened.

Bank after Race 1

Win                  -$100
Place                $0.00
Show               $0.00
Exacta              -$150
Trifecta -$180
Superfecta        -$48

 

4:22pm Post Time Race 8

PN       Horse               Fair Odds         Bet Odds         Place Pool %    Show Pool %
7          Chocolate C     Even                 9/5                   29.2%              26.0%
4          Massone          9/2                   7/1                   na                     na
3          Axel Foley        6/1                   9/1                   na                     na

Win      $50      4 Massone                   needed 7/1 and got 8/1
Place    pass
Show   pass
Exacta  $100    $25 Exacta Key Box 7 with 3,4
Tri        $60      $10 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 3,4
Super   pass

Result   7-4-6   $1 exacta paid $6.50

Win                  -$50
Exacta              +$62.50
Trifecta -$60

Year to date Bank

Win                  -$150
Place                $0.00
Show               $0.00
Exacta              -$87.50
Trifecta -$-240.
Superfecta        -$48

 

Here is how I will play all the prep races

Win Bets
I will place a win bet on all horses having odds at 1 minute to post equal to or higher than the bet odds shown above.  I will place $50 flat win bets on each overlay.

Place & Show Bets

I will check the pool totals and place a $100 place and or a $100 show bet if there is an equal or less percentage of money bet on the horse’s pool percentage above.  The filter I will use is that the horse I will bet must also be the favorite or second favorite.  NO LONGSHOTS for place and show bets.

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta

I will take the Lowest Odds horse (favorite hopefully) of the 4 contenders above and use him as the key horse in all positions as laid out below.

X= key horse
A,B,C = other three contenders

The exacta will be two tickets placed like this with a cost of $6.00/$1.00

X with ABC
ABC with X

I will place $25 exactas so my cost is $150.00

The Trifecta will be three tickets placed like this with a cost of $18.00/$1.00

X with ABC with ABC
ABC with X with ABC
ABC with ABC with X

I will place $10 Trifecta tickets so my cost is $180.00

The Superfecta will be four tickets placed like this with a cost of $24.00/$1.00

X with ABC with ABC with ABC
ABC with X with ABC with ABC
ABC with ABC with X with ABC
ABC with ABC with ABC with X

I will place $2.00 Superfecta tickets so my cost is $48.00

I will always make sure the favorite is included in my exotic tickets but if the favorite is not one of my listed contenders, the favorite is not the key horse.  The lowest odds horse becomes the key horse and I use the favorite as an additional contender.

February 2009 Kentucky Derby Prep Races Schedule

March 2009 Kentucky Derby Prep Races Schedule

April 2009 Kentucky Derby Prep Races Schedule

2009 Triple Crown Trail