Horse Racing
Betting tips from over 20 years of experience.
June 27, 2009
Arlington Park 6/27/2009 Race # 1
4 ½ furlongs Dirt
Maiden Special Weight. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD ILLINOIS REGISTERED, CONCEIVED AND/OR FOALED. Weight, 118 lbs. Statebred.
Estimated Post Time: 1:00 PM
$2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily/ $2 Exacta $0.50 Trifecta $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3
There are eight entries running in this maiden allowance race. It is a sprint so we expect to see a horse with early speed take control. I also look for the best-bred horse with good connections (jockeys and trainers). The owners of Maiden Allowance horses still believe they have something special so therefore they will not allowed him to be claimed.
My track stats for Arlington tell me that the favorites have won 78/280 races at the meet this year for a 28% win rate. The national average is 33% so the favorites are not as efficient at Arlington. The flat ROI for betting each favorite is only .70.
My computer program picks the #1 Shake N Quake as the clear number one choice. Let us see if I agree after my full analysis.
There are only two horses that have run in a live race before making six first time starters. You can forget about all speed or Beyer numbers so we will look at the connections and the breeding. I see a 28-point difference between the top bred horse (#6 Dorothy Y) and the second top bred horse (#2 Cupid’s Best). This is huge coupled with the fact Dorothy Y is one of the two experienced horses. The pedigree factor at Arlington is winning at an 18% rate and only a .85 ROI.
I will skip all of the fractions analysis since there are only two first time starters. I see no post or style bias at this time. There will be no pace analysis.
The current Jockey top rating goes to Dorothy Y while the top Trainer rating goes to Cupid’s Best. The Jockey Trainer combo record advantage goes to Shake N Quake. Dorothy Y comes in a distant 3rd and 21 points behind in this category. Arlington show that the most important factor of the three is the Jockey/Trainer combined as this factor wins 22% of the races with a nice 1.13 ROI.
There are no outstanding spot plays for this race.
This is a race I would definitely pass on, but since this is the free pick page, I will step out and make a selection.
Key Horse #6 Dorothy Y
Exacta Contenders #1 Shake N Quake, #4 Sweetheart City, #8 Fantastic Madame
Trifecta & Superfecta Contenders: add #2 Cupid’s Best