Horse Racing
Betting tips from over 20 years of experience.
June 28, 2009
Free Horse race pick for AP 6-28-09
Yesterday I gave out a nice winner and exacta so let’s see if we can keep it going today.
Arlington Park 6/28/2009 Race # 5
8 ½ furlongs Turf
Maiden Special Weight. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 119 lbs.
Estimated Post Time: 2:50 PM
$2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily/ $2 Exacta $0.50 Trifecta $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3
This is a maiden allowance turf race, which is one of my favorite type of races to bet. All past performance run on the dirt can be discarded so we will concentrate on the breeding factor. As always, I will check to current race stats as well as the Jockey and trainer information.
We have six entries so let us take a look at each one.
#1 Punta Ballena – has no turf experience and lousy breeding. He has only one previous race and his connections are OK. I throw him out.
#2 Its Tiffin Time - a truly proven loser 0-11 and 0-5 on the turf. He has hit the board 6 times so he will be a contender for me. He has 5 previous turf races and was actually running in MCL races a few races ago. He has good breeding, but it has not show up in any races as of yet. Finished 2nd in last outing at AP so I expect the crowd to back him. He is the morning line favorite with not very good connections.
#3 Lexis Bay – another proven loser starting out 0-9 and 0-4 on the turf. He has hit the board 3 times and shows up with the best breeding of this group, by far. I do not like the 0-4 turf start so he will be marked as a contender. The connections are solid.
#4 Sensational Gold – He has only 1 life time start and did not hit the board. It was a dirt race so we throw it out and check the breeding, which is average. He has average connections. He will be my last choice as a contender if there is a scratch or huge odds on my Key.
#5 A.J.’s Beauty – This horse has only 3 starts with the last one on the turf. He has hit the board 2 0f the three races, finishing 2nd in his last race which was on the turf at Arlington. He is rising up in class from a MCL which is a positive sign. His breeding is good and the connections are great. He has the top jockey, trainer and combo in the race. He is my Key Horse.
#6 Countus in Mon – This horse is 0-3 and has never raced on turf . He has never hit the board. He has OK breeding and that is what I look for in turf maiden races. He has bad connections but I like the change to turf . I will use as a contender.
This is another race where nothing looks great so we will bet accordingly and hope to make a score.
Key Horse #5 A.J.’s Beauty
Exacta Contenders #2 Its Tiffin Time, #3 Lexis Bay, #6 Countus in Mon
Trifecta & Superfecta Contenders: add #4 Sensational Gold