Horse Racing
Betting tips from over 20 years of experience.
Free Horse Picks 7-18-09
Below is today’s FREE horse selection(s). These plays have made a straight bet profit for over 15 years using the methods described in my Epic Exotics book.
Each day I will give one or two of the many plays one can make each and every day at racetracks around North America.
For Saturday, I will move up to the “great white north” and make my FREE play at Northlands Park. I am looking at Race which should have a local post time of about 4:36pm. This race is your standard claiming race with a claiming price of $7,500 and a purse total of $7,900. We have three year olds and up which have never won three races. There is a little note that the conditions do prefer horses that have won two races. This race will be run on the dirt over a 6 furlong distance.
This race offers Win, Place, Show, Exactor, Triactor and Superfecta wagering. Let’s look to make a score!
There is a giant field of ten so if we can get a good key horse, at a nice price, we might be able to make a decent score. The pace looks to be average and the projected winning speed rating times look to be in the upper 60’s. Since this race is full of a bunch of proven losers I will look in my bag of tricks to pull out a key horse!
I notice that #6 Stormy Intention is 7/2 on the morning line and has a few things I really like
- Improving BEST last race speed rating
- A class drop of over 40% in purse from his previous race. This is a sign that the trainer is trying to win or dump this horse.
- Decent ¼ mile times, 3rd best in this field
- 3rd best last race speed rating
- Fastest ever stretch fraction times of any horse in this field and it happened at this track
- Quincy Welch has won 27% of his mounts! Add that to the fact he wins 23% of the 6 furlong races he runs.
- Quincy wins 29% of his starts with the running style of Stormy Intention
- If the Jockey happens to go to an early lead in this race ( he won’t) he does know how to win on the lead. Quincy wins an astonishing 54% of his races where he has the lead at the ¼.
All this great information gives us a whopping 20-30% chance of winning. Ya gotta love this game!
My Key Horse is #6 Stormy Intention