Stock Market
All comments and Stock Market Ananlysis are made by Guy Brumley. Guy has been trading the Stock Market daily since 1992.
Trading, evaluating stock prices and predictions
Market Commentary 2-06-2009
The market will get its first impulse at 7:30 Am., with the jobs numbers, this number will be weak, as expected, and should have an initial downward thrust on the averages. After the initial downside move (probably the first thirty minutes), we should have a rally back 50% to 100% of the initial move. I would view this as a trading opportunity. As I suggested in yesterday’s comments the market is still waiting for the details of the stimulus package before it commits or removes its money.
One consistent pattern of stock market history is the market leads the economy by six months. That means we should see a bottom in the stock market six months before the economy comes back. Therefore, a bottom now means better times in the second half of 2009.
Personally, I follow the 4-year presidential cycle. This is indicating the cycle low is due in 2010 (usually third quarter). Therefore, the bottom in this market should be first quarter of next year. Any rally can be intense but is made to trade and fail. The similarity to the Great Depression and the 1930’s is reflected in the comment “Rockefeller lost more money in the 1930’s trying to buy the bottom than he lost in the 1929 crash”.
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