Stock Market
All comments and Stock Market Ananlysis are made by Guy Brumley. Guy has been trading the Stock Market daily since 1992.
Trading, evaluating stock prices and predictions
Stock Market Commentary 5-21-2009
The market traded in a range of 8405 to 8591 and was down 52 on the close, still nothing to hint at the next move. The sector that is showing strength is the materials sector.
The link
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/top-timing-newsletters-on-balance-are-bullish
has some interesting data from seven market timers that have been successful through the two bear markets of the last decade. These seven are the only timers out of 160 that managed to make money in the last decade. I have followed Bob Brinker through his weekend radio program over the years, and I do remember his sell call in the middle of
2000. Unfortunately, I believe he was late to the party on the down draft that began in 2007.
Today, the VIX bounced off its one-year support line at 26.50. Low values on the VIX correspond with complacency and/or optimism of the investor. The VIX traded in the 10-20 range during the 2005 – 2007 bull market. We could and probably will see lower readings if we continue to rise in the markets.
Right now, whether you call this a bear market rally, or a new bull market, I think we will see 9000 before we see 7000 on the DOW.
The sector in the market that appears the strongest is the materials sector. This would make sense if China were to lead us out of this recession. It could be we are in a commodity bull market, before we see a turn around in the equities.
There have been some reports lately saying that bonds have outperformed stocks when compared for the last 40 years.
Return to Previous Market Commentaries